It would fall. If the UK had defecit it would be less attractive to investors worried about the economy. Those investors would then moved GBP to other currencies like EUR or USD. This then devalues the pound and exchange rates would then fall.
its not always so simple however! Things like this are always forecast in advance, and so priced into exchange rates some weeks in advance. So, it figures were released showing a defecit that was less than expected, you could actually see GBPUSD rise!
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